Citigroup is Important, but...

Citi's announcement last night that it's having a bang-up first quarter is very important. Citi was at the core of the late fall meltdown in the credit markets and is vital to the recovery of the same markets. If Citi does, in fact, post a solid first quarter by following up a strong February with a good or better March, it could be the tipping point. However, it will be only a potential tipping point. It will still be necessary for other financial institutions to follow suit and post their own improving performance. Today's rally was nice, 6 to 8% rallies are nice, but we'll need more evidence of broader improvement among financials before we can get comfortable returning to equities. Financials lead the way into recessions and they lead the way out.